Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
